Friday, June 24, 2005

More on the Marlins

An interesting stat tossed out by Mark Bradley this morning about the Marlins. Their team average of .273 (good for 3rd in the NL) is 19 points higher than the Brave's anemic .254. However, they have scored 27 fewer runs (I do not know if this reflects last night), admittedly in 3 fewer games. Good for third from the bottom in the NL. Atrocious. The Braves 333 runs put them a respectable 6th. They have a higher team OB% (.338 versus .321 - 3 games shouldn't account for this; I haven't looked at sacrifices though) but 18 less walks. Their team OPS is 14 points higher than the braves (.754). The Braves have a tiny slugging league - 3points.

That last is a misleading statistic - SLG has never really measured power as traditionally purported. The Marlins closeness is thanks to the batting average. The Braves have outslugged the Marlins. 2 more doubles and a triple ( trivial), but 20 more homeruns. They've hit less, true, but they've made it count more. A decent year from Mike Lowell would radically change this, but you can hardly put all the blame on him.

Juan Pierre is definately a problem - the 2-4 hitters (Castillo, Cabrera, Delgado) are having big years. he should be leading the Galaxy in runs scored. You can't do that when you don't get on base. Baseball persona often eschew the sabermetric talk, and often point to guys with low OB% and good (90-100+) run seasons as successful because of speed. Poppycock. Someone like Tony Womack has had that sort of "success" before (I think he scored 111 runs for Arizona in 99 with like 70 steals). However, you could put an aging but still cagey Rickey Henderson (who could post .400 OB%s in his late years regardless of his other stats) at the top of such a linuep and the guy would score 130.

It's unfair to just trash Pierre - he has a .355 career OB% which is far from horrible, and he's had some good years. Still, if I'm McKeon I'm dropping him in the order until he gets it figured out. The Marlins' season is far from over, but either Pierre needs to start hitting or McKeon will have to do something.

Right Bobby?


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