Friday, June 03, 2005

A couple of additional notes

Dan doodie was himself victimized by further bullpen lapse. However, it's very difficult to come in and pitch with the bases juiiced like that. If memory serves, Strand rate - the percentage of inherited runners a bullpen strands - normalizes to some number I cannot forget. And lacking the proper link right now, I can't investigate it. It is an interesting stat, however. It suggests that a good bullpen matters but is limited into just how much in crisis situations. A good bullpen can outperform strand rate - but it's tough to get 5/6 guys who all do it. Gryboski has been up and down at best and did not help.

But he shouldn't have been in that position (sorry to pick on you more, Dan-o).

I mis-guestimated Betemit's projections. At his walk rate, he's projecting to a 500-550 AB full slate I think - So 120-130 walks and a 650ish Plate Appearance season. That's a pretty full slate I think. Here are some of his minors numbers :

2000 - low A - 30/37 (BB/K) 69/269 (G/AB) .81
2001 - high A - 23/71 84/318 .32
2001 - AA - 12/36 47/183 .33
2002 - AAA - 34/82 93/343 .41
2003 - AAA - 38/115 127/478 .33
2004 - AAA - 32/99 105/356 .32

I'm sensing a pattern. . .it's not that good. Though people can outperform low eye rations (see: Soriano). It genreally takes very good speed and power.

I can't recall if he gained a couple of years in the great Latino Age Purge, so his listed 24 kind of caught me off guard. It is still young - many guys don't enjoy success until later in their careers. I don't want to see the Braves bet the farm on him and have this just be a temporary thing, while the league slowly adjusts to him. But I'm happy to watch him in the mean time.

Now if only we could grab about 3 releivers. . .

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